Recession fears re-emerge as UK economy “close to stalling” in July

by administrator

Recent months, it is fair to say, have been ones of ups and downs for many UK business owners, who have been anxious to see reasons for optimism. The UK did at least avoid what had once been a widely anticipated recession in late 2022; however, worries have since been reignited that this could come to pass during the second half of 2023 or early 2024 instead.

The reasons for such concerns were evident in the findings of S&P Global and the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply (CIPS)’s recent polling of firms.

As reported by the i newspaper, the companies questioned said that business had been sluggish for them recently, following the adverse impacts of climbing interest rates, persistently high inflation, and customers becoming ever-more cautious.

Sure enough, the survey discovered that although industrial output did still go up in July, it did so at its slowest pace since January.

No longer a question for some of “if the UK economy will enter recession, but for how long”

S&P Global chief business economist Chris Williamson observed about the data: “Rising interest rates and the higher cost of living appear to be taking an increased toll on households, dampening a post-pandemic rebound in spending on leisure activities.”

He continued: “The UK economy has come close to stalling in July which, combined with gloomy forward-looking indicators, reignites recession worries.”

And there was agreement on this stance from CIPS economist Dr John Glen, who said “the biggest concern is increasingly not if the UK economy will enter recession, but for how long.”

And there are certainly plenty of other metrics out there indicating that many individuals and organisations utilising expert accounting services in Newton Abbot – such as our own here at TS Partners – may shortly have to brace for recession.

It was reported on 25th July, for example, that the pound had undergone seven consecutive days of falls against the US dollar, which was its worst run since March 2020, the month the COVID-19 crisis first seriously hit the UK.

Furthermore, the EY Item Club recently issued a warning that rising interest rates are set to negatively impact the UK’s economic growth in 2024. The economic forecasting group lowered its prediction of UK growth next year to 0.8%, compared to the 1.9% it had forecast in April. And it reduced its expectations of 2025 growth, too, from 2.3% to 1.7%.

Our expertise can help ensure your business remains on a steady course

For great numbers of UK companies, then, it looks like next year will be at least as testing for them as 2023 has been. This, in turn, could give you all the more reason to double-check that your organisation is working alongside the most suitable provider of expert accounting services in Newton Abbot.

Reach out to your local TS Partners office today, to discuss how our solutions in relation to accounting, bookkeeping, payroll, and more could help put your business in the optimal position for success throughout the months and years ahead.